Bitcoin value

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I heard that the bitcoin value will crash soon due to bitcoin futures. Can anyone kindly comment on this? Thanks
 

V4Vendetta

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I heard that the bitcoin value will crash soon due to bitcoin futures. Can anyone kindly comment on this? Thanks
My opinion, but I think Bitcoin has stagnated because of futures. If you look at the recent BTC market cap gain over the last couple of months, a lot of big money came in. My guess is that some of it were either institutional players or crypto whales looking for swing opportunities. They were likely getting into position to later stagnate the price of BTC and when the futures contracts are about to mature, they would go back in and drive the price back up to make their profits. The problem with this is that most of the futures contract rules dictate that they can put restrictions on swings, last I heard was 7%. So their margins wouldn't be that big anyway, especially considering BTC swings way more than 7% on any given day. Essentially you can make way more swing trading BTC on your own. I think both the futures investors and the companies offering futures are in way over their heads with the crypto market and they may stop offering them in the future. So we may see a bit of a lull in the BTC market for a bit, but things should get interesting next year (particularly spring to summer) as more and more money pours into the space.
 
Joined
Dec 2017
From
Indonesia
My opinion, but I think Bitcoin has stagnated because of futures. If you look at the recent BTC market cap gain over the last couple of months, a lot of big money came in. My guess is that some of it were either institutional players or crypto whales looking for swing opportunities. They were likely getting into position to later stagnate the price of BTC and when the futures contracts are about to mature, they would go back in and drive the price back up to make their profits. The problem with this is that most of the futures contract rules dictate that they can put restrictions on swings, last I heard was 7%. So their margins wouldn't be that big anyway, especially considering BTC swings way more than 7% on any given day. Essentially you can make way more swing trading BTC on your own. I think both the futures investors and the companies offering futures are in way over their heads with the crypto market and they may stop offering them in the future. So we may see a bit of a lull in the BTC market for a bit, but things should get interesting next year (particularly spring to summer) as more and more money pours into the space.

So do you think that switching to BCH or ETH would be a safer bet for the short term? Any views also on Quantstamp?


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Joined
Dec 2017
From
Indonesia
My opinion, but I think Bitcoin has stagnated because of futures. If you look at the recent BTC market cap gain over the last couple of months, a lot of big money came in. My guess is that some of it were either institutional players or crypto whales looking for swing opportunities. They were likely getting into position to later stagnate the price of BTC and when the futures contracts are about to mature, they would go back in and drive the price back up to make their profits. The problem with this is that most of the futures contract rules dictate that they can put restrictions on swings, last I heard was 7%. So their margins wouldn't be that big anyway, especially considering BTC swings way more than 7% on any given day. Essentially you can make way more swing trading BTC on your own. I think both the futures investors and the companies offering futures are in way over their heads with the crypto market and they may stop offering them in the future. So we may see a bit of a lull in the BTC market for a bit, but things should get interesting next year (particularly spring to summer) as more and more money pours into the space.

Also, do you think that bitcoin cash may take the lead in the future?


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V4Vendetta

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Joined
Apr 2017
From
Texas
Also, do you think that bitcoin cash may take the lead in the future?


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For those who look at this as a long game, it’s usually best to hold in the largest coins, but over time any of these coins will need to prove their worth, and there will always be new competition. What’s good about BTC is it has much larger adoption and an infrastructure already established that BCH doesn’t. They may in the future but not as of yet. But people will and already are getting sick of the super high fees with BTC, so the market will either shift to something with cheaper fees if they plan to trade a lot, or they will start using BTC as a more (store of value) coin, and use something like BCH more like cash. But in the future BCH could face the same issue with scalability that BTC is facing now. BTC could later decide to fork and upgrade to a higher MB limit, and somehow implement lower fees, which would then challenge some of BCH’s main selling points. The great thing about a free market is that good merits are rewarded and bad actors are punished by market consumers, essentially the opposite of the US’s current regulated/controlled marketplace. So to the victor goes the spoils but the war of ideas and development continues. Diverisifaction is always a good strategy, then you never completely lose.
 
Joined
Dec 2017
From
Indonesia
For those who look at this as a long game, it’s usually best to hold in the largest coins, but over time any of these coins will need to prove their worth, and there will always be new competition. What’s good about BTC is it has much larger adoption and an infrastructure already established that BCH doesn’t. They may in the future but not as of yet. But people will and already are getting sick of the super high fees with BTC, so the market will either shift to something with cheaper fees if they plan to trade a lot, or they will start using BTC as a more (store of value) coin, and use something like BCH more like cash. But in the future BCH could face the same issue with scalability that BTC is facing now. BTC could later decide to fork and upgrade to a higher MB limit, and somehow implement lower fees, which would then challenge some of BCH’s main selling points. The great thing about a free market is that good merits are rewarded and bad actors are punished by market consumers, essentially the opposite of the US’s current regulated/controlled marketplace. So to the victor goes the spoils but the war of ideas and development continues. Diverisifaction is always a good strategy, then you never completely lose.

Thanks much for your thoughts and anaysis. It was very comprehensive and also very informative. BTW have you heard of Quantstamp? I heard that the developers are coming up with a way to secure smart contracts. Do you see a bright future for this token?


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V4Vendetta

Moderator
Joined
Apr 2017
From
Texas
Thanks much for your thoughts and anaysis. It was very comprehensive and also very informative. BTW have you heard of Quantstamp? I heard that the developers are coming up with a way to secure smart contracts. Do you see a bright future for this token?


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No problem, and yes, sorry I forgot to mention Quantstamp before. Yes they are working on securing smart contracts, and since smart contracts will be quite omnipresent in the future, this will be an important need, so I’m sure that if they deliver on their roadmap they will do well.
 
Joined
Dec 2017
From
Indonesia
No problem, and yes, sorry I forgot to mention Quantstamp before. Yes they are working on securing smart contracts, and since smart contracts will be quite omnipresent in the future, this will be an important need, so I’m sure that if they deliver on their roadmap they will do well.

Thanks much. Really appreciate your time. Keep in touch


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