How low will Bitcoin retrace?

evo

Site Admin
Joined
Apr 2017
W0uiH46k


The thesis is, assuming that was indeed the macro bottom for this cycle, based on the current trend, I'm expecting Bitcoin to retrace back down to $33,000 to $34,000 area...

But if Bitcoin continues to move upward, then I would need to revise this prediction.
 
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evo

Site Admin
Joined
Apr 2017
phUiFlHm


And now, we have officially broken the trend line that started since July 21, when this mega pump began. Let's see what happens next...
 

evo

Site Admin
Joined
Apr 2017
H16kdl24


And when you zoom out and put everything into perspective, we have not broken the primary resistance for the overall trend...
 

evo

Site Admin
Joined
Apr 2017
s2Hkvt3F


Looking at the weekly, with 30 minutes remaining, a bullish sign would be closing above $39,000...
 

evo

Site Admin
Joined
Apr 2017
RdymhTln


Looking at the last 10 days of pumping, we bounced right off the .618 Fib for the entire movement...
 

evo

Site Admin
Joined
Apr 2017
uZIgZZ51


Bitcoin is staying within the macro level falling wedge. Primary Resistance has shown to be extremely strong. Until the chart shows otherwise, a potential cycle macro bottom is still in play. My estimate is in late September. Until something happens to invalidate this thesis, we are still trading in this falling wedge pattern.
 

evo

Site Admin
Joined
Apr 2017
tpAJEJ7s


My thesis for predicting a potential macro bottom cycle, based on today's rejection of the primary support... I pulled a fib from the cycle bottom to the cycle top, and while I'm expecting a bounce in the 33k region, the best case for the bears that has not been invalidated is targeting $26,000 to $27,000 for Bitcoin. Possibly, a wick down to $25,000 area, but that should be the macro bottom before we go up.

I'm not saying this will certainly happen. This is my thesis for the bears. And seeing as is has not been invalidated yet, I'm sharing it here.

And to be fair, because we are still above the cycle axis, Bitcoin currently looks generally more bullish than bearish. If we drop below the cycle axis, that changes.

Protect your capital. And trade safe.
 

evo

Site Admin
Joined
Apr 2017
BNXbg90o


Bitcoin is now in a falling wedge pattern, which is bullish. Will we break up for the short term or start the expected retrace?
 

evo

Site Admin
Joined
Apr 2017
BxZ6seLJ


I've revised the falling wedge pattern to a downward trend line, which Bitcoin is slowly falling along. Volume is low.

Assuming we bounce off the axis line and/or stay above $37,000 in the short term, I expect BTC to go back up and test those higher highs.
 

evo

Site Admin
Joined
Apr 2017
nXrHETHp


Good breakout to the upside coming out of the falling wedge in the previous post from yesterday.

On the daily, I wanted to see Bitcoin close above $40,000 to feel good about continuing the bullish uptrend, but that didn't happen, and I think we are going to test lower support levels around the $35,000 and maybe $33,000 areas.
 
Joined
Aug 2021
From
Seattle
I don't understand much about cryptocurrency yet. I started to study and analyze the stock market relatively recently. I don't know how good I am at it, but I really want to learn this craft. I think bitcoin will be growing for a long time to come. In a couple of years I predict a growth of 100%-150% at least. Saying that, I refer to many sources (mostly news and web-sites which publish forecasts about market movement (I understand that it is subjective and nobody can predict the growth, but I think that it is worth to know about these assumptions).
P.S. This is my subjective opinion.
 

evo

Site Admin
Joined
Apr 2017
Any new ideas? $50k for September looks very possible now.
I'm expecting one more final push over the next week or so to the low to mid 50's, and then we are overdue for a retrace next month.

The next few days will be interesting to watch, and we will learn a lot in September about where we are in the general overall cycle.
 
Joined
Aug 2021
From
Melbourne, Australia
I sold off yesterday. Can't see it getting much higher here, Maybe $52k tops.... Will re-assess when/if real sell off begins to determine where to get back in
 
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