V's crypto predictions for Sep 2017

Apr 2017
As of 8:30pm CST, the crypto markets look like they are in free fall. However, for anyone who has been following crypto longer than over the last month, this is nothing new. From China's decision to ban ICO's and then temporarily shut down local exchanges until the government establishes what they consider to be effective regulations on Bitcoin, crypto exchanges and future ICO's, to Jamie Dimon claiming Bitcoin is a "fraud," investors are now seeking answers to the current market crash. Is this a bubble, as many have claimed? Is the whole market a fraud like Jamie Dimon claims? Or are there other factors happening. Well, one thing is certain; other than the fact that Jamie Dimon is a fraud (https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/09/jamie-dimon-billion-dollar-secret-jp-morgan), the crypto market has always been and will be for the foreseeable future, erratic and not easily predictable. However, I'll try to, as sensibly as I can, attempt to offer a few possible explanations as to why the market is currently volatile and what to expect over the next month.

First, beginning around the end of March of this year, the crypto market began it's first ever parabolic gains. Total market cap grew from around $23 billion USD to $85 billion USD in a two month period (https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/). Since nothing can go parabolic forever, it was only inevitable that it would see some kind of correction. Within 2 days of hitting its, then, all time high it dropped to just below $69 billion USD (May 27, 2017). What makes sense, despite any doom and gloom news, is that all the people who had invested in crypto and had been sitting on it for years, finally decided to cash out a significant amount of their profits. However, the confidence didn't stop there. The total market cap grew to reach another all time high of $112 billion USD by June 17th. The market fluctuated over the next month and ended at a low of just over $73 billion USD by July 17th. Many were saying that 'the end was nye' and you'd best pull out now because the jig is up! However, one month later, August 17th, the total market cap had risen to a new all time high of $141 billion USD, and by September 1st, the total market cap had hit its new all time high of just under $177 billion USD. And today it fell to a low of $114 billion USD. That means $63 billion, yes, with a B, left the market over the last two weeks. If you've been following the news over the last year, crypto has been getting a lot of press, especially lately. People who had either never heard of Bitcoin a year ago or had heard of it but thought it was a scam or simply didn't understand it were likely responsible for much of the total market cap increase from the $85 billion USD to it's recent high of $177 billion USD. This is what I call "stupid money." I don't mean to claim all of these people are stupid, but many of that money I would assume came from traditional investors (aka Wall Street worshipers). These are the people who think that a 50% profit from playing the stock market over a 10 year period makes them geniuses. Anyone who has been in the crypto market since at least 2016 knows that if your best crypto investment yielded you less than 1 to 2 times your investment, a very conservative figure, then you must have done something horribly wrong. So if your faith lies with Jamie 'the fraudster' Dimon, who made tons of money off of tax payer funded "bail outs," and the average pathetic stock market return, then by all means, don't lose your faith; keep that 20% return coming, but equally, don't be upset at your friend who said you were stupid for pulling out on a down turn. But going back to the market cap history, if anyone else wants to go check the charts at Coin Market Cap, you can see the obvious pattern. Anytime a significant selloff happens the price of most coins tend to fall, especially the top 5 coins, where the bulk of the total market cap lies. So as much of a 'prophet' as Mark Cuban or Jamie Dimon think they are, and as much as the new money, or as I'm calling it "stupid money," enters and leaves the market, the people who understand that this entire market is about longevity, are the same who will come out way ahead in the end. So, all that to say, if you are a serious and relatively new investor, don't panic. This happened countless times before and will happen again in the future. And if anyone tells you the crypto market is a big scam and and fraud and THIS is the time that it will surely end, just forward them the Bitcoin Obituaries link (https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoinobituaries/) and add their prediction to the list of all the other times Bitcoin died and went away. And for nervous investors, if you don't like to see your profits disappearing, the most simple solution is to log out of your hosted wallet (or stop looking at the market prices) and go do something else for a few weeks. Chances are you'll have your profit back with interest when you log back in a few weeks later.

So here are my predictions, for whatever they're worth (probably not much in this market): (Sept 14-Oct 14)
*all predictions are for the next 30 days.
Possible Low $2800; factors: Total market cap stays between $100-$120 billion USD. China drags out its ICO and exchange ban, BTC forks yet again.
Possible High $4200; factors: total market cap increases above $140 billion USD, China gets it's regulations in place and they don't strangle the industry, other counties pick up China's slack creating new markets.
Possible Low $150; factors: ICO bubble fully bursts, ETH hard fork doesn't go well, general market panic.
Possible High $550; factors: ICO's self regulate and don't become a funding strain on the overall network, ETH hard fork goes well, investors turn to ETH as an alternative to BTC's uncertainty as China begins regulating.
Possible Low $39; factors: general market panic, total market cap remaining low.
Possible High $100; factors: market cap increase, investors turn to LTC as a more stable option as compared to ETH or BTC.
Possible Low $0.14; factors: loss in market cap or crypto total market cap.
Possible High $0.25; factors: gain in total market cap, investors choose XRP for more stability in price.
Possible Low $85; factors: total market cap stays low, confidence in markets fades.
Possible High $150; factors: investors turn to XMR for more privacy over BTC following China's decision to regulate, investors see XMR as a better long term buy than BTC.

So overall, my two favorite coins for the next 30 days are ETH and XMR, but I think ETH is more of a wildcard due to hard fork unknowns.
(*note: I obviously didn't post predictions for a large number of coins as I think these will be of the most significance over the next month.)
But hey... what do I know....
Apr 2017
Thanks for the summary and links to articles. I'm fairly new in the market and I have actually been excited for the downturn from China's announcement so I can buy more and ride it out long term.
I'm hopeful China's behavior will encourage other countries to be more adoptive of crypto markets, much like Japan has done, so that China won't have such a large scale influence on the markets in the future. True free market capitalism means that bad actors are punished by the market players for their poor decisions.
I'm hopeful China's behavior will encourage other countries to be more adoptive of crypto markets, much like Japan has done, so that China won't have such a large scale influence on the markets in the future. True free market capitalism means that bad actors are punished by the market players for their poor decisions.
Yeah, I think China is going to regret their decision sooner or later. And them drawing a line in the sand -- then getting burned and having to eat crow -- will impact other countries...